Probability Spectrum:
| Probability Level | Likelihood | Accounting Treatment | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probable | > 50% chance of occurrence | Provision - Recognize on BS | Warranty claims based on historical data |
| Possible | ≤ 50% but > remote | Contingent Liability - Disclose | Pending lawsuit with uncertain outcome |
| Remote | Very unlikely, ≤ 5-10% | No disclosure required (usually) | Frivolous lawsuit with no merit |
Examples Comparison:
Same Situation - Different Probabilities:
Product Liability Case:
- Provision Scenario:
- Company has defective product causing injuries
- Multiple claims filed, settlement likely
- Legal counsel estimates $2M settlement probable
- Treatment: Recognize $2M provision
- Contingent Liability Scenario:
- Single claim filed, company believes it has strong defense
- Outcome uncertain, loss not probable
- If loss occurs, estimated $500,000
- Treatment: Disclose contingent liability in notes
Warranty Obligations:
- Provision (for standard warranties):
- Historical data shows 3% of products need repair
- Average repair cost: $100 per unit
- Sales: 10,000 units = $30,000 provision
- Recognized as expense and liability
- Contingent Liability (for extended warranties):
- Optional extended warranty sold separately
- Claims depend on customers opting for warranty
- No present obligation until warranty purchased
- Disclosed as contingent if material